Pre-tourney Rankings
American Athletic
2013-14


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Louisville 100.0%   4   29 - 5 15 - 3 29 - 5 15 - 3 +22.4      +10.7 7 +11.7 2 72.0 81 +16.1 13 +16.9 2
25 Connecticut 99.9%   6   26 - 8 12 - 6 26 - 8 12 - 6 +13.4      +4.4 67 +9.0 10 65.6 234 +15.0 17 +11.9 5
26 Cincinnati 99.9%   4   27 - 6 15 - 3 27 - 6 15 - 3 +13.3      +3.0 102 +10.3 7 62.1 308 +16.1 12 +19.0 1
32 SMU 38.8%   23 - 9 12 - 6 23 - 9 12 - 6 +11.8      +3.8 82 +8.0 16 67.3 187 +11.1 43 +12.2 4
36 Memphis 89.5%   9   22 - 9 12 - 6 22 - 9 12 - 6 +11.1      +4.9 56 +6.1 42 74.6 46 +13.1 28 +12.3 3
127 Houston 0.0%   17 - 16 8 - 10 17 - 16 8 - 10 +2.7      +4.6 61 -1.9 222 69.2 139 +4.5 108 +6.3 6
146 Temple 0.0%   9 - 22 4 - 14 9 - 22 4 - 14 +1.5      +4.2 71 -2.7 241 71.3 92 -0.9 181 -1.1 9
148 Central Florida 0.0%   11 - 18 4 - 14 11 - 18 4 - 14 +1.4      +1.8 127 -0.4 184 70.8 100 +0.5 158 -1.0 8
166 Rutgers 0.0%   11 - 21 5 - 13 11 - 21 5 - 13 +0.1      +0.9 150 -0.8 200 72.4 71 -1.0 182 +1.3 7
177 South Florida 0.0%   12 - 20 3 - 15 12 - 20 3 - 15 -0.9      -2.0 227 +1.1 145 66.8 200 -0.6 176 -2.9 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Louisville 1.0 100.0
Connecticut 3.0 100.0
Cincinnati 1.0 100.0
SMU 3.0 100.0
Memphis 3.0 100.0
Houston 6.0 100.0
Temple 8.0 100.0
Central Florida 8.0 100.0
Rutgers 7.0 100.0
South Florida 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Louisville 15 - 3 100.0
Connecticut 12 - 6 100.0
Cincinnati 15 - 3 100.0
SMU 12 - 6 100.0
Memphis 12 - 6 100.0
Houston 8 - 10 100.0
Temple 4 - 14 100.0
Central Florida 4 - 14 100.0
Rutgers 5 - 13 100.0
South Florida 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Louisville 100.0% 100.0
Connecticut
Cincinnati 100.0% 100.0
SMU
Memphis
Houston
Temple
Central Florida
Rutgers
South Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Louisville 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 4   2.9 10.6 29.3 45.3 10.9 1.0 0.1
Connecticut 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 6   0.5 7.1 36.8 38.6 15.4 1.4 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Cincinnati 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 4   0.1 0.6 10.2 46.9 35.8 5.9 0.5 0.0 0.1 99.9%
SMU 38.8% 0.0% 38.8% 0.4 1.2 4.8 21.6 10.8 61.2 38.8%
Memphis 89.5% 0.0% 89.5% 9   0.0 0.4 1.8 9.8 25.6 28.8 17.8 5.3 0.1 10.5 89.5%
Houston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Louisville 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.2% 80.1% 59.0% 43.6% 31.8% 23.1%
Connecticut 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 64.0% 29.1% 12.2% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6%
Cincinnati 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 73.6% 37.0% 13.9% 5.6% 2.1% 0.6%
SMU 38.8% 24.7% 28.0% 12.8% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Memphis 89.5% 1.2% 89.0% 43.1% 12.5% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Houston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.3 6.2 59.5 34.3
1st Round 100.0% 4.2 7.6 68.0 24.4
2nd Round 99.8% 2.9 0.2 5.6 26.3 43.1 22.7 2.1
Sweet Sixteen 93.7% 1.6 6.3 39.1 40.9 12.4 1.3 0.0
Elite Eight 71.6% 0.9 28.4 53.5 16.5 1.6 0.1
Final Four 51.2% 0.6 48.8 46.2 4.9 0.1
Final Game 35.4% 0.4 64.6 34.5 0.9
Champion 24.5% 0.2 75.5 24.5